This report summarizes and compiles data on the operating revenue, total profit, profit margin, import and export volume, and machine tool production of the Chinese machine tool industry from January to September 2024, including the entire industry and major sub industries, as well as their year-on-year changes. It analyzes the operational characteristics of the industry and makes predictions on the annual situation. The report is mainly based on the statistical analysis and calculation data of the China Machine Tool and Tool Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Association), the metal processing machine tool production of enterprises above designated size published by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the statistics of key enterprises contacted by China Customs and the Association.
1、 Main operational indicators of the machine tool industry
1. Operating revenue
From January to September 2024, the entire machine tool industry achieved a revenue of 752.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, which narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to January to June. Among them, metal cutting machine tools increased by 3.9% year-on-year, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from January to June; Metal forming machine tools increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the period from January to June; Abrasives and grinding tools decreased by 18.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the period from January to June.
The operating income of the entire machine tool industry and major sub industries is detailed in Table 1.
Table 1 Operating revenue of the entire machine tool industry and major sub industries from January to September 2024
2. Total profit
From January to September 2024, the total profit of the machine tool industry reached 19.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.8%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.6 percentage points compared to January to June. Among them, metal cutting machine tools decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 9.1 percentage points compared to the period from January to June; Metal forming machine tools decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 7.9 percentage points compared to the period from January to June.
The total profit of the entire machine tool industry and major sub industries is detailed in Table 2.
Table 2: Total Profit of the Machine Tool Industry and Major Sub sectors from January to September 2024
3. Profit margin
From January to September 2024, the average profit margin of the entire machine tool industry was 2.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7 percentage points and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to January to June. Among them, metal cutting machine tools decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and increased by 0.3 percentage points from January to June; Metal forming machine tools decreased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, and increased by 0.2 percentage points from January to June.
The profit margins of the entire machine tool industry and major sub industries are detailed in Table 3.
Table 3 Profit margin of the entire machine tool industry and major sub industries from January to September 2024
4. Production of metal processing machine tools
According to the statistical data of enterprises above designated size released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of metal cutting machine tools from January to September 2024 was 506000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the growth rate expanded by 1.5 percentage points compared to January to June; The output of metal forming machine tools was 126000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, shifting from a year-on-year decline from January to June to an increase.
Figures 1 and 2 respectively show the year-on-year growth rates of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools produced by the National Bureau of Statistics in the past three years.
Figure 1: Year on year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool production
Figure 2: Year on year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production
2、 Import and export situation
1. Overall situation
From January to September 2024, the import and export of China's machine tool industry still maintained a slight overall decline, characterized by a decrease in imports, an increase in exports, and an expansion of trade surplus. Compared with the period from January to June, the year-on-year changes in various indicators have narrowed.
According to Chinese customs data, the amount and year-on-year changes of import and export of machine tool products are detailed in Table 4.
Table 4 Import and Export Amount and Year on Year Situation of Machine Tool Commodities from January to September 2024
The cumulative import and export situation of the main commodity categories of machine tools are detailed in Figures 3 and 4.
Figure 3 Cumulative imports of machine tool products (in billions of US dollars)
Figure 4 Cumulative export of machine tool products (in billions of US dollars)
2. Import and export situation of metal processing machine tools
From January to September 2024, the import and export of metal processing machine tools continued to maintain a trade surplus, with a double-digit decline in imports and a slight increase in exports. Compared with the period from January to June, the decline in imports has slightly narrowed, and the growth rate of exports continues to decline, with exports of metal cutting machine tools showing a year-on-year decline.
According to Chinese customs data, the amount and year-on-year changes of imports and exports of metal processing machine tools are detailed in Table 5.
Table 5 Amount and year-on-year situation of metal processing machine tool imports and exports from January to September 2024
(1) The top five metal processing machine tool varieties in terms of import amount
The top five imported metal processing machine tool varieties and their import amounts from January to September 2024 are detailed in Table 6.
Table 6: The top five metal processing machine tool varieties with import amounts from January to September 2024
(2) The top five metal processing machine tool varieties in terms of export value
The top five metal processing machine tool varieties and their export amounts from January to September 2024 are detailed in Table 7.
Table 7: The top five metal processing machine tool varieties in terms of export value from January to September 2024
3、 The association focuses on contacting the operational status of enterprises
1. Main economic performance indicators
From January to September 2024, the operating revenue of key affiliated enterprises decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January to June; The total profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from January to June; The proportion of loss making enterprises was 27.2%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January to June; The output of metal processing machine tools increased by 3.1% year-on-year, shifting from a year-on-year decline from January to June to an increase; The output value decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 4.1 percentage points compared to the period from January to June. Among them, the production and output value of metal cutting machine tools increased by 2.4% and 1.1% respectively year-on-year, both of which turned from a year-on-year decline from January to June to an increase. The production of metal forming machine tools increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to the period from January to June; The output value decreased by 27.4% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 4.5 percentage points compared to the period from January to June.
2. Order status
From January to September 2024, the number of new orders for metal processing machine tools increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from January to June; On hand orders decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 4.4 percentage points compared to the period from January to June. Among them, new orders and orders in hand for metal cutting machine tools increased by 6.0% and 4.3% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates falling by 2.1 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from January to June. New orders for metal forming machine tools decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, with a 0.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the period from January to June; On hand orders decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 10.7 percentage points compared to the period from January to June.
4、 Characteristics of Machine Tool Industry Operations from January to September
1. The policy effect continues to show, and market demand shows a recovery growth
The continuous manifestation of the effects of policies such as the "Two New Policies" has had a positive demonstration effect on investment. Investment in equipment and tools highly related to the machine tool industry increased by 16.4% year-on-year, 13 percentage points higher than total investment. The association's key contact enterprises saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in new orders for metal processing machine tools.
From the income situation from January to September, the industries of metal forming machine tools, metal cutting machine tools, machine tool functional components and accessories have continued to grow, and the growth rate is showing an expanding trend; The growth rate of cutting tools in different industries has fallen back to basically unchanged; Only the abrasive and grinding tool industry is in a declining state, and as a result, the overall industry revenue is still in a declining range, but the decline continues to narrow.
2. The intensification of market competition and the narrowing of product profit margins
Due to insufficient effective demand in traditional user areas and severe homogenization of mid to low end products, some enterprises can only survive by exchanging price for quantity, resulting in a narrowing of product profit margins. From a price perspective, the Industrial Producer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics continues to decline, and the association focuses on the growth of production and the decline of output value of metal processing machine tools in key enterprises, resulting in a decrease in the average price per unit. From a cost perspective, the growth rate of operating costs for industrial enterprises announced by the National Bureau of Statistics is significantly faster than the growth rate of operating income. The machine tool industry also focuses on data from listed companies, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin and insufficient support for profit growth.
From the profit situation from January to September, only the functional components and accessories of machine tools have continued to grow by industry; The decline in the industries of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools has narrowed to single digits; The decline in cutting tools by industry is showing an expanding trend; The abrasive and grinding tool industry as a whole is in a state of loss. The total profit of the entire industry has decreased year-on-year, and the profit margin has narrowed.
3. The operating conditions of different industries vary, and the revenue and profit of abrasives and grinding tools continue to decline significantly
From the operation of the main indicators, the operating income and profit of machine tool functional components and accessories in different industries have continued to grow, and the growth rate has expanded to double digits; The revenue growth of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools has expanded, but profits are still slightly lower than the same period in 2023; The operating revenue of the cutting tool industry is basically the same as the same period in 2023, but the profit has declined slightly; The operating revenue of the abrasive and grinding tool industry has continued to decline, and profits have also significantly decreased to a loss.
The special research on the abrasive and grinding tool industry conducted by the association in the third quarter showed that about 30% of the abrasive and grinding tool industry is used in metal processing machine tools and related fields, and the revenue level of these products is stable with a slight decrease; Another 70% mainly serves other fields such as infrastructure construction, and the revenue level of these products has decreased significantly.
4. The activity of the production end is gradually increasing, and the output of metal processing machine tools has fully recovered and grown
With the continuous effectiveness of a package of policies, there has been a significant increase in positive factors driving economic recovery and improvement. Market demand is gradually recovering, market confidence is gradually increasing, and the activity of the production side is gradually increasing. The output of metal cutting and metal forming machine tools has fully recovered and grown.
According to the statistical data of enterprises regulated by the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of metal cutting machine tools has maintained a growth trend since September 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from January to September, and the production has reached the highest level in the past three years from January to September; After two years of decline, the production of metal forming machine tools recovered to growth in July this year, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% from January to September. However, the production has not yet reached the level of January to September 2022.
According to the statistical data of key enterprises contacted by the association, the production of metal cutting machine tools has entered a downward trend since the beginning of 2022, and only resumed growth in August this year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% from January to September; The production of metal forming machine tools has also entered a downward trend since the beginning of 2022, and only resumed growth in May this year, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% from January to September.
5. Accelerate globalization layout and actively explore overseas markets
On the one hand, under the influence of factors such as the global manufacturing industry moving towards high-end, intelligent, and green directions, the acceleration of industrialization in emerging economies, and the adjustment of supply chain strategies for end customers, the potential demand for overseas markets deserves attention; On the other hand, with the overall strength, product technology level, and quality stability of China's machine tool industry improving, industry enterprises seize opportunities, actively expand export business, and actively explore overseas markets through various forms such as establishing service institutions, assembly factories, and production factories overseas.
From the export situation from January to September, the overall export of the machine tool industry increased by 1.2% year-on-year, among which the export of metal processing machine tools increased by 2.2%. The export of cutting tools, measuring instruments, machine tool functional components (including parts) and other products maintained growth. Although the growth rate of exports has narrowed, it is not easy to maintain growth even with a high base in 2023.
5、 Annual operation forecast of the machine tool industry
From a macroeconomic perspective, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024. The head of the National Bureau of Statistics responded to reporters' questions about the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2024, stating that favorable conditions for promoting economic stabilization and recovery are increasing, and confidence in achieving the expected target of around 5% is strengthening.
The national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) from January to September 2024 released by the National Bureau of Statistics increased by 3.4% year on year, of which the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 16.4% year on year, 13.0 percentage points higher than the total investment. Manufacturing investment increased by 9.2%, with new driving forces continuously cultivated and strengthened. The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to advance, and manufacturing investment maintained rapid growth.
The PMI for China's manufacturing industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics has rebounded to the expansion range in October, following two consecutive months of expansion in March and April 2024. The production index and new order index of industries such as general equipment, automobiles, and electrical machinery manufacturing are all above 54.0%, indicating a rapid release of production and demand.
From a policy perspective, the country's emphasis on industrial mother machines has reached an unprecedented height, providing solid policy support and guidance for the high-quality development of the machine tool industry, and will continue to enhance the endogenous development momentum of the machine tool industry.
From the perspective of market demand, there is insufficient effective demand in traditional user areas. However, the increasing demands for high efficiency, precision, and intelligence in machine tool products from high-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing, and green manufacturing, as well as the increasing demands for processing capabilities from new materials, technologies, and processes, have brought new opportunities to the machine tool industry and raised higher requirements for innovation and upgrading of machine tool products.
Taking into account various factors, industries such as metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, functional components and accessories, and cutting tools are expected to achieve growth in 2024. However, considering the operational status of the parts serving other fields in the abrasive and grinding tool industry, the overall machine tool industry in 2024 may experience a decline compared to the previous year.
(Source: Information Statistics Department of China Machine Tool and Tool Industry Association, Editor in Chief: Mei Feng)
